The Newest Global Trends Report Reveals Its Predictions For The Next 20 Years

The National Intelligence Council, a center in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence that creates strategic forecasts and estimates, released its quadrennial “Global Trends” report. The report uses information, often based on material gathered by U.S. spy agencies, to predict where the world will be heading in the next two decades.

What did the report find?

The report predicted that two occurrences will have the most profound effects on the global landscape: the coronavirus pandemic and the ravages of climate change.

The Pandemic 

The authors of the report describe the pandemic as a preview of crises to come.  Before the pandemic, many assumed that governments and institutions were well equipped to handle catastrophes. But, the pandemic reminded us of how fragile we actually are.

The mishandling of the pandemic has eroded trust in policymaker’s ability to handle further crises. The report notes that political, cultural, and economic fragmentation is also contributing to a growing mistrust that the government will be able to meet the population’s needs. 

Beyond creating new problems, the pandemic also revealed and accelerated existing socioeconomic issues. The massive losses that vulnerable populations suffered are an ominous sign of things to come.

Climate Change 

The report predicts that climate change will continue to upend society. Resource shortages, severe weather, and more frequent airborne illnesses will incite mass migration. There is also the threat that new human conflicts, including global food shortages will spawn mass violence. 

What will the global political scene look like?  

Instead of one dominant force, the next few decades will likely be dominated by a rivalry between China and the United States and their allies, resulting in “a more conflict-prone and volatile geopolitical environment.” 

The report showed five different scenarios of how this rivalry could play out.The two most extreme versions are Renaissance of Democracies and Tragedy and Mobilization. 

Renaissance of democracies 

In this best case scenario, a new era of US global leadership is ushered in in which economic growth and technological achievements offer solutions to the world’s biggest problems.  Russia and China become obsolete as their brightest scientists and entrepreneurs leave for more open societies.  

Tragedy and mobilization

This darker  scenario envisions a world where the United States is no longer the dominant player. Global environmental catastrophe prompts food shortages and a revolution of young people who have been disillusioned by their leaders’ failures during the coronavirus pandemic.  The European Union, led by green parties, works with both the UN and China to expand international aid, focus on sustainability, and quell domestic unrest.  

The three other scenarios are that China becomes a leading state but not globally dominant, the US and China prosper and compete as the two major powers, and the world devolves into competing blocs, preoccupied with threats to their prosperity and security.

Hope for brighter days...

While the authors acknowledged that the current systems are poorly set up to address the compounding global challenges, they also noted the potential for change, speculating that the pandemic could spur consequential shifts towards a more sustainable future.  The study predicts that countries that plan ahead and use technology effectively will be best poised to manage the upcoming crisis. They envision artificial intelligence as a means to boost productivity and expand economies in ways that allow the government to deliver more services, reduce debt, and help cover the costs of caring for aging populations.